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Excess Mortality in Two-Year Rodent Carcinogenicity Studies

Department of Statistics Pfizer Global Research and Development, Groton, CT

This paper considers the impacts of various patterns of differential or excess mortality on the biological and statistical interpretation of 2-year rodent carcinogenicity studies. It provides suggestions on experimental design that are intended to maximize the value of such studies for carcinogenic risk assessment. Specifically, it recommends dose reduction, possibly to the level of dose cessation, when biologically feasible and considers the merits of termination of the entire study as alternatives to the commonly employed strategy of terminating particular dose groups. It then recommends statistical analysis modifications that are appropriate when these suggestions on experimental design are adopted. One of the recommended modifications is a new statistical test to determine whether a dose group exceeds the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) on the basis of mortality. While the authors provide recommendations for the most commonly occurring exigencies, they acknowledge the need for and strongly support the practice of active engagement of the appropriate regulatory agency, e.g., the FDA, prior to any action.

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